Mr. Trump, who in June retweeted a video of a supporter shouting “white power,” won the state in 2016 by five percentage points. Last month, that number stood at 660,000. In a recording obtained by The Washington Post, President Trump alternately berated, begged and threatened Brad Raffensperger to overturn President-elect Joe Biden’s win in the state. Ohio: Trump faces a daunting gender gap in a changing state. A few people who lined up for the event wore masks, but most did not. Some call the 2020 presidential election “the most secure in American history.” But what does that mean? Here's what that means for 2020. In some legislative chambers, all seats were up for election, but some chambers with staggered terms held elections only for a portion of the seats in the chamber. If Mr. Trump holds the crucial battleground state this time, it won’t be because of reduced turnout in places like West Philadelphia, predicted James Jones, 62, a retiree who was waiting for a bus at the busy intersection. Here's what we know. Bernie Porn, president of the Lansing polling firm EPIC-MRA, said Mr. Biden had a good shot of repeating those numbers in Kent County this year. The reduced enthusiasm for Mrs. Clinton in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s biggest Democratic stronghold, contributed to the state electing a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since 1988 — albeit by less than one percentage point. He has gotten stares, he said, and heard echoes of Mr. Trump’s references to the “Chinese virus” and “kung flu.” Mr. Jiang, who holds a Ph.D. in physiology, has worked to placate neighbors by giving away masks and ginseng. How the Swing-O-Matic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each party’s candidate by the five demographic groups. The path to the presidency runs through about a dozen key states. Still, he declined to predict a winner because he said voters were overwhelmed with conflicting information amid a faltering economy and a resurgent pandemic. CARRBORO, N.C. — Kara Hume found it odd that a caravan of at least 30 trucks was rolling slowly through the center of Carrboro, the liberal North Carolina enclave that sits adjacent to Chapel Hill, with Trump flags waving from the bed of most every vehicle. Every extra vote that they get through unlawful interpretations of Section 2 hurts us. “He’s lied to us, he didn’t give us the supplies, he just didn’t look out for us,” Mr. Jones said. Jobs in the education and health services sectors, for example, where the work force is roughly three-quarters female, have increased by about 3 percent in Ohio over the last five years. Possibly, but it is not a definitive transformation for the state, according to those who follow political trends closely. It appears that every Republican candidate that flipped a congressional seat in 2020 was either female, Hispanic or a military veteran. Election Graphs uses a "Last X Polls" model, specifically so that as the election approaches and there is more polling, we look at shorter and shorter timeframes and are more responsive to changes. At the same time, Mr. Trump appears to have maintained the loyalty of some white, college-educated Georgians by convincing them that violent “antifa thugs” were coming to ruin the suburbs. “I’m not sure he’s going to win over all of Western Michigan, but Whitmer did well there in 2018, and Biden is doing better. “I’m not surprised to see turnout numbers that are going to exceed 2018 and will probably dwarf any previous Texas election,” said Ted Delisi, a Republican strategist in Austin who was the national field director for former Gov. “Democrats have been heavily mobilizing to get out and vote this time,” Professor Schultz said. In the 2018 midterm elections, 76 percent of Wisconsin citizens age 65 and older voted, according to census data — more than in all but six other states. Particularly in view of the overwhelming hard evidence documenting the greatest vote fraud and election theft in world history is this never-ending media assault meant to be intolerable for Trump. With senators appointed into six-year terms, the Democrats would have to wait two years just for one-third of the Senate to be up for re-election. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court. Their names grace parks, schools, convention centers and one of the fanciest hotels in the region. “Biden, he’s giving us hope and not lying,” said Ms. Pernell, who voted for Mrs. Clinton and plans to vote for Mr. Biden. “It started out as a business dispute,” he said. For his part, Mr. Biden will most likely not appear in Nebraska in the final days of the election. This post was updated on February 26, 2021 with new data. Race ratings from the Cook Political Report. In short, 2020’s map continues to reflect a striking split between the large, dense, metropolitan counties that voted Democratic and the mostly exurban, small-town, or rural counties that voted Republican. Recent polls have Mr. Biden running neck-and-neck in the state. Iowa: This presidential race is enough to make two grown farmers cry. Note: 2020 figures reflect unofficial results from 99% of counties. LAS VEGAS — Long lines and scorching temperatures didn’t stop Nevadans from showing up for the first full week of early voting in the state. “No one is taking anything for granted,” said Ken Martin, chairman of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, Minnesota’s version of the Democratic Party. She became a registered Democrat in 2018 because she felt Mr. Trump was damaging the Republican Party. Investigators said they traced the logs for the DeSantis address change to a web browser that led them to Mr. Guevara. In the three voting precincts immediately surrounding the site, which many now call the George Floyd memorial, 42 percent of roughly 6,000 registered voters had already cast ballots by Friday — 20 percentage points higher than the total early turnout rate in 2016. While the metropolitan/ nonmetropolitan dichotomy remained starkly persistent, 2020 election returns produced nontrivial movement, as Biden added modestly to the Democrats’ metropolitan base and significantly to its vote base. Pennsylvania: Residents see Biden faring better than Clinton in Philadelphia. She didn’t see the recent Trump parade that passed through perhaps the state’s most progressive area as a waste of energy and resources. But her margin was smaller than Mr. Obama’s in 2012, a shift that some analysts attributed to lower turnout in majority-Black areas including West and North Philadelphia. In this second episode of Doing Justice, Preet Bharara’s six-part adaptation of bestselling book, Preet tells the story of former New York State Assemblyman Nelson Castro, who went undercover after being caught in a lie and helped SDNY put away a corrupt politician and his conspirators. We find that Georgia voting machines were sending information to China, ballots were being shredded and people were caught on camera running the same stacks of ballots through the counting machines three and four times. As some men’s economic power has declined in Ohio, many women have gained. “I get angry at people who equate pro-life with being anti-abortion.”. A three-hour drive away, near Iowa’s northern border with Minnesota, the other farmer became emotional, too. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received nearly 73 percent of the votes cast in Orange County. Mr. Trump won Alamance County with 54 percent of the vote. In 2016, Clinton won the state by 2.4 percentage points. Important issues in the 2020 election With the country in the midst of a recession, nearly eight-in-ten registered voters (79%) say the economy will be very important to them in making their decision about who to vote for in the 2020 presidential election – the … When 1 didn’t work they flipped as many as they could but the landslide amount of votes Trump received broke the machine. North Carolina: An invisible line cleaves a region into political camps. He introduced several local Republican officials but otherwise offered only a few area-specific entreaties to the crowd, saying at one point, “As president, I will always defend ethanol,” referring to the gasoline additive that is made from corn and which has long been a political topic in neighboring Iowa. “I’m just a small family farmer trying to make it.”. And Health care was a top priority for Marylouise Felhofer, 68, a retired Navy nurse, also of Oconomowoc. And Steve Pestka, 69, a former Democratic state legislator and county judge from Cascade Township on the west side of Michigan, has some anecdotal proof. After the rally, hundreds of attendees were left stranded for hours in the cold when a fleet of buses meant to shuttle them back to a parking lot couldn’t keep up with demand. Trump’s demeanor is not presidential.”. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Association Press and different main media networks projected that former Vice President Democrat Joe Biden would declare Arizona and … “It felt safer to bring it here with all the noise we’ve heard about voting,” she said, her face flecked with traces of show makeup. Mr. Heil, on the other hand, hopes Mr. Trump is re-elected and will play hardball with China until that nation backs down and rescinds tariffs as high as 41 percent on ginseng, or until U.S. tariffs on China’s exported ginseng match that level. In 2020, it’s rated a Tossup. (Republicans in the Sixth District, however, had a lead of about seven percentage points in ballots cast.) Lisa Posthumus Lyons, a Republican who is running for re-election as Kent County clerk, said she feels good about her race but knows the political dynamics are tricky this year. Michigan has 16 electoral votes. Pennsylvania: Bucks County was tight in 2016, and voters are split again. Georgia has been stung by criticism that it makes participating in elections more difficult for people of color. One of them, Jen Jordan, has been tilling these cul-de-sacs ever since she flipped a Republican state-Senate seat in a 2017 special election. “We have no idea, and anybody predicting the outcome of the election in North Carolina just isn’t telling the truth.”. And many suburban women, turned off by Mr. Trump, have dived into political organizing. State election officials are gradually transitioning to better systems. Check back each Wednesday to hear Preet grapple with the moral dimensions […] Wisconsin: The state’s older voters wield power, and many are choosing Biden. In 2016, we wrote that the 2,584 counties that Trump won generated just 36% of the country’s economic output, whereas the 472 counties Hillary Clinton carried equated to almost two-thirds of the nation’s aggregate economy. “He’s not a politician — he doesn’t owe people favors,” Ms. Laughland said. “Nevada leans blue because of its demography and the Democrats’ superior get-out-the-vote operation,” David Damore, a professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, wrote in an email. He promised to bring them back, saying he was going to “make America wealthy again.”. In 2020, it’s rated a Tossup. Even in the more conservative areas of Kent County, the breakdown has been 50-50. county known for ginseng. If you flip something, you turn it over quickly one or more times, and if something flips, it…. “I don’t know that most people in this building appreciate some of the comments that Republicans have been making, whether their agenda is good or not,” said Ms. Jaeger, who lives in a Lutheran senior complex. This economic rift that persists in dividing the nation is a problem because it underscores the near-certainty of both continued clashes between the political parties and continued alienation and misunderstandings. Many wore masks and gloves (that’s not just a Democratic thing, either). “I wish he’d quit tweeting, but by gum, he’s done what he said he would do.”. Election fraud and voter fraud allegations have been a big concern this election season. Not only does Wisconsin have a larger share of older adults than the national average — and in many counties, 30 percent or more of the population is age 60 and over — but the state’s older voters also head to the polls in big numbers. But John Grace, 86, a retiree, said he would vote for Mr. Trump again because the president “puts America first.”. Days before the election, Ms. Lippolis, 40, said she still had not decided whom to vote for. “In terms of lawn signs, it’s overwhelmingly Democratic,” he said. If Mr. Trump loses Ohio, it will be partly because of his declining support among men. Decisive (but targeted, non-ubiquitous) election fraud occurred on November 3. "It puts us at a competitive disadvantage relative to Democrats," he told Barrett. With more than 80 percent of the vote, Mrs. Clinton won Philadelphia handily. November 4, 2020, 3:56 PM. In 2016, Trump won the state by 5.1 percentage points. In 2016, Trump won the state by 9.4 percentage points. By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 464 1.1.2021). “Enthusiasm is there. Mokah Jasmine Johnson faced racist slurs in her bid for a State House seat. After a lengthy investigation by the House ethics committee, he admitted to violating 11 ethics rules and paid a $50,000 fine. “Right away at the George Floyd site, we had voter registration tables and we focused in on areas where there was a lot of civil unrest.”. “The level of support that turned the county blue two years ago, I think Biden is doing even better this year,” Mr. Porn said. When Mr. Trump arrived at the outdoor setup on an airport tarmac, he repeatedly emphasized the size of the crowd, which he claimed was 29,000 people. More than 1.4 million people in Harris County, which includes Houston, voted in person and by mail during the early voting period ending Friday, out of a total of 2.4 million registered voters. The Rev. It was a final push about a week before the election from perhaps the most ambitious Democratic operation in Arizona. Rather, she said, it was a vital exercise of Americans’ constitutional rights. Jane Kleeb, the chairwoman of the Nebraska Democratic Party, described the campaign rally as “a potential superspreader event.”. We also use the mid-date of polls to determine just which polls are part of the "Last X" rather than the end-date. Mr. Trump’s success in Ohio four years ago had a lot to do with those lost jobs. “Are we choosing the lesser of two evils? PHILADELPHIA — At 52nd and Market Streets in the heart of West Philadelphia, Black residents offered their predictions on the presidential race in interviews this week, with several saying that Mr. Biden had made more significant inroads with Black voters and might have better success than Hillary Clinton did here in 2016. One of Houston’s landmarks — a piece of block-letter graffiti reading “Be Someone” on Interstate 45 that has become a civic slogan — was painted over and now declares, “Vote or Die.”. However, what is potentially fatal for America is half … Continue reading the 2020 election: fuckery is afoot → That reduced the share of the nation’s GDP produced by Republican-voting counties to a new low in recent times. For local Chinese-American ginseng farmers like Ming Tao Jiang of Hatley, the pain of the downturn has been worsened by Mr. Trump’s rhetoric blaming China for the virus. Voters waiting in line to cast their ballots in Las Vegas last Saturday. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes. The only successful recount I can remember is the one after the 2008 election in Minnesota that gave Al Franken a slim majority over incumbent Sen. … In Marathon, Wisconsin’s largest county by area, voters traditionally lean Republican. As the tree-lined and quintessentially college-town streets of Orange County’s Chapel Hill and Carrboro give way to the rolling hills of rural Alamance County, Biden-Harris and Black Lives Matter signs become less ubiquitous in favor of Trump and thin blue line flags. “You stand for what your values are,” Ms. Ransohoff said. GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Kent County, home to former President Gerald R. Ford and some of Michigan’s most generous Republican donors, has taken on a different political hue in the last few years. Proportional representation describes a system where the distribution of seats corresponds closely with the proportion of the total votes cast for each party or individual candidate. And Bonita Herr, a retired pharmacist who lives in Euless and who voted for Mr. Trump, said that for her, it was all about the bottom line. Hiral Tipirneni, a Democrat, is attempting to unseat Representative David Schweikert and flip Arizona’s Sixth Congressional District. More specifically, Biden flipped half of the 10 most economically significant counties Trump won in 2016, including Phoenix’s Maricopa County; Dallas-Fort Worth’s Tarrant County; Jacksonville, Fla.’s Duval County; Morris County in New Jersey; and Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla.’s Pinellas County. Even against a Democratic challenger, Devin Ortega-Furgeson, who hasn’t reported raising money in the race, Ms. Lyons has already spent close to $50,000 on her campaign, nearly double the amount she spent in 2016. After four years of Mr. Trump, Black voters are motivated to support his rival, who is more likely to represent their interests, she said. “We have the power; we have the vote; we can fire him — and that’s the plan,” Ms. Tipirneni told the group of almost 50 volunteers in a video conference call. Election Results; Latest News; ... things have flipped, and Biden is now the favorite. 3 months ago | 8 views. If a “blue wave” washes over Arizona on Tuesday, as some expect, Mr. Trump could lose the state. Jan Brewer, recalled running into Ms. Tipirneni at an event in 2019 and telling her she had no chance to win in the district. The organization has made a special point to encourage voting in the city’s Eighth and Ninth Wards, which converge at the intersection where George Floyd was pinned beneath a Minneapolis police officer’s knee before he died. I get choked up when I think about how somebody else put their money up there, just to help me get started. And the interviews suggested that Mr. Trump might be in trouble among this older demographic. Texas: All of a sudden, a two-party election in the Lone Star State. Democrats carried the district in every election from 1992 until 2016, when Mr. Trump narrowly carried it. But we’re probably going to hear sporadic reports of “vote flipping” for at least a few more election cycles. There have been long lines at early voting sites in San Antonio, Houston and Austin, not because of polling-place glitches but simply because of demand. Some Voting Machines Are Flipping Votes But That Doesn't Mean The Election Is 'Rigged' As early voting starts, there are scattered reports of touch … Andrea Ballow, 56, formerly a registered Republican, said she had already voted for Mr. Biden. We’re seeing a record number of early ballots coming back. “The way that he presents himself, the Twitter, the ‘China virus.’ I feel he does it on purpose to get a rise out of people because he is a celebrity. “I trust more what he’s saying than I do Trump.”. Election 2020: All eyes will be on these 6 states on Election Day. GOP just flipped another congressional seat. A poll of Wisconsin this month by The New York Times and Siena College showed Mr. Biden with a double-digit advantage among voters over 65, 53 percent to 42 percent. In 2016, Trump won the state by 9.0 percentage points. Meaning of flopped. “The slot went right into the building like a mail slot, and it was marked with a great big sign.”. Possibly, however it isn’t a definitive transformation for the state, according to those that comply with political tendencies carefully. The data confirms that the election sharpened the striking geographic divide between red and blue America, instead of dispelling it. It was unfair. “Trump supports the American farmer,” said Mr. Gergen, 69, who recently posted a large sign on his property that says “God Bless America and God Bless the American Farmer” next to signs encouraging passing drivers to vote to re-elect the president. Voter registrations have risen for Democrats and declined for Republicans in all four of Philadelphia’s “collar” counties since 2000. ST. PAUL, Minn. — David Schultz, a professor at Hamline University here, this week gave the students in his introduction to American politics class a lecture on the history of voting rights. Mr. Pestka, who has been watching campaigns for more than 50 years, said the 2020 cycle has been like no other. Despite messages from the state Republican Party that voting by mail is safe and effective, Republicans are instead heeding Mr. Trump’s directive to go to the polls on Election Day. Georgia: Up and down the ballot, racism is an issue. Ron DeSantis’s primary residence was changed in his voter registration file. “In 2016, people wanted something different, and I understand that, but if you do it again, I think there’s something wrong with you.”. PHOENIX — Did the so-called “blue wave” make its manner throughout Arizona? At different points, he urged supporters to vote. The high turnout was not just a Democratic thing. Chuck Coughlin, a Republican political strategist in Arizona who served as chief of staff to former Gov. When the clock strikes midnight on election day in a state where democrats control the vote counting, republican hopes turn into a pumpkin, and even if the republican hits midnight with a commanding 200,000 vote lead, the democrats will still discover enough ballots under the cover of night to win. The election of Donald Trump produced the highest turnout in any midterm — led by Black Americans, women, and suburban voters — and the fierce re-election battle in 2020, the highest turnout since 1900 — led by Black Americans, millennials, and unmarried women and above all, by new white working-class Trump voters, particularly … In 2020, it’s rated Lean Democratic. And now I feel it’s my responsibility to pay whatever I can.”, Mr. Smith said he likes and respects his neighbors who support Mr. Trump in his town of fewer than 900 people, but he believes “we have a responsibility for all of us to do what we can to make democracy work.”. If you’re getting 3:1, or 3 to 1, it means for every dollar you wager, you can win 3. Anthony Steven Guevara, a 20-year-old from Naples, Fla., was charged with unauthorized computer access and altering a voter registration without consent. Even the graffiti artists are riled up. Jennifer Carnahan, the chairwoman of the Minnesota Republican Party, agreed in an interview that a large number of Republican voters would turn out on Election Day. For Ms. Tipirneni, there are other signs that the district is within reach. So if you bet $10 and lose, you lose $10, but if you win, you win $30. I don’t think our president has done anything significant on right-to-life, other than the appointment of three Supreme Court judges.”, Father Tom Suriano, 82, said there were other “pro-life” issues to be concerned about, like “children in cages,” “people dying homeless and hungry on the streets,” and “cutbacks to Obamacare.”, “First of all, Donald Trump is a newcomer to the pro-life camp, but secondly, once the baby is born, he seems to lose interest,” Father Suriano said. Rates of returned ballots have been particularly high in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, home to the Democratic-leaning Twin Cities. These States Could Flip From Red To Blue During The 2020 Election There are four days left to vote before Election day, and a number of states are still a toss-up. She has yet to decide whom to vote for because she doesn’t like Ms. Harris, who she says sought harsh prison terms for offenders when Ms. Harris was a prosecutor in California. “There are farmers right now — they’re losing so much money, they cannot continue; they’re done,” Mr. Gergen said, speaking at a motorcycle rally in Sioux City to support Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa. Pamela Ransohoff, a member of the North Carolina Republican Party, was stationed outside a popular Chapel Hill voting location on Wednesday, offering early voters sample ballots, Trump-Pence stickers and facsimile hundred-dollar bills with the president’s face at their center. More this week on the 2020 election fraud, this time in Georgia, and, yes, there was more proof and lots of it. Many prefer to do it in person, but legislation passed in August also required election officials to send all active voters a mail-in ballot. ... the results of the election came down to who won Florida, which George W. … The key to a Democratic senate now lies in Georgia, where two seats could still be flipped. In 2020, it’s rated a Tossup. Nevadans have always shown a predilection for early voting. Joshua L. Jones/Athens Banner-Herald, via Associated Press. Let's start by taking a look at the electoral map from Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Mr. Trump will try to recreate his 2016 winning formula this year by ending his campaign with a scheduled late-night rally on Monday in Grand Rapids. “We were not very well-off when we were growing up,” Mr. Smith said as he showed Ms. Ernst’s opponent, the businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, around his farm. Blue and red America reflect two very different economies: one oriented to diverse, often college-educated workers in professional and digital services occupations, and the other whiter, less-educated, and more dependent on “traditional” industries.
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